泥沙輸移方程在地貌預測模型研究應用中的局限性

Sources of uncertainty or error that arise in attempting to scale up the results of laboratory-scale sediment transport studies for predictive modeling of geomorphic systems include: (i) model imperfection, (ii) omission of important processes, (iii) lack of knowledge of initial conditions, (iv) sensitivity to initial conditions, (v) unresolved heterogeneity, (vi) occurrence of external forcing, and (vii) inapplicability of the factor of safety concept. Sources of uncertainty that are unimportant or that can be controlled at small scales and over short time scales become important in large-scale applications and over long time scales. Control and repeatability, hallmarks of laboratory-scale experiments, are usually lacking at the large scales characteristic of geomorphology. Heterogeneity is an important concomitant of size, and tends to make large systems unique. Uniqueness implies that prediction cannot be based upon first-principles quantitative modeling alone, but must be a function of system history as well. Periodic data collection, feedback, and model updating are essential where site-specific prediction is required.

作 者： 魏翔 李占斌 Wei XIANG LI Zhanbin   作者單位： 魏翔,Wei XIANG(State Key Lab of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, CAS, Yangling 712100, China)

李占斌,LI Zhanbin(State Key Lab of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, CAS, Yangling 712100, China;Xi'an University of Technology, Xi'an 710000, China) 

刊 名： 地理學報(英文版)  ISTIC SCI 英文刊名： JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES  年，卷(期)： 2004 14(1)  分類號： P9  關鍵詞： sediment transport   geomorphic systems   predictive models  

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