Scenario Formation of Energy Demand and CO2 Emissions for Sustainable China

Co-integration theory has been employed in this paper and Granger causes are found between urbanization rate and GDP, between capital stock and GDP. Scenario analysis of GDP is performed using the GDP model established in the paper. The energy consumptions in Germany, Japan and other developed countries are analyzed and compared with the energy consumption in China. Environmental friendly scenario of energy demand and CO2 emissions for sustainable China has been formed based on the results of comparison. Under environmental friendly scenario, the primary energy consumption will be 4.31 billion ton coal equivalence (tee) and CO2 emissions will be 1.854 billion t-c in 2050; energy per capital will be 3.06 tce that is 1.8 times of energy consumed in 2005 in China and 51% of consumed energy per capital in Japan in 2003. In 2050, the energy requirement of unit GDP will be 20% lower than that of Germany in 2003, but will be still 37% higher than that in Japan in 2003. It is certain that to fulfill the environmental friendly Scenario of energy demand and CO 2 emissions is a difficult task and it needs long term efforts of the whole society, not only in production sectors but also in service and household sectors.

作 者： Wei Baoren Yagita Hiroshi   作者單位： Wei Baoren(Suzhou University of Science and Technology, Suzhou Jiangsu 215011, China)

Yagita Hiroshi(Nippon Institute of Technology, Saitama Pref. 345-8501, Japan) 

刊 名： 中國人口·資源與環境（英文版）  英文刊名： CHINESE JOURNAL OF POPULATION,RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT  年，卷(期)： 2008 6(4)  分類號： C92  關鍵詞： energy demand   CO2 emissions   scenario analysis   cointegration  

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