Climate change, social unrest and dynastic transition in ancient China

The evident connection between human evolution and climatic changes has been concurred by scientists. Although many people are trying to forecast the impacts of climatic changes on our future society, there are not any studies to quantitatively scrutinize the interrelation between climatic changes and social developments by using historical data. In line with this knowledge gap, this study adopted a scientific approach to compare the paleoclimatic records with the historical data of wars, social unrests, and dynastic transitions in China spanned from the late Tang to Qing Dynasties. Results showed that war frequency in cold phases was much higher than that in mild phases. Besides, 70%-80% of war peaks and most of the dynastic transitions and nationwide social unrests in China took place in cold phases. This phenomenon could be attributed to the diminishing thermal energy input in cold phases resulting in the fall of land-productivity and hence, the deficiency of livelihood resources across society. Accompanied with certain social circumstances, this kind of ecological stress was transformed into wars and social unrests, followed by dynastic transitions in most of the cases. By closer examination, it was even found that war frequency was negatively correlated with temperature anomaly series. As land carrying capacities vary from one climatic zone to another, the magnitude of war- temperature association also differed among different geographic regions. It is suggested that climatic change was one of the most important factors in determining the dynastic cycle and alternation of war and peace in ancient China.

作 者： Zhang Dian JIM Chiyung LIN Chusheng He Yuanqing LEE Fung   作者單位： Zhang Dian,JIM Chiyung,LIN Chusheng,LEE Fung(Department of Geography, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China)

He Yuanqing(Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China) 

刊 名： 科學通報(英文版)  SCI 英文刊名： CHINESE SCIENCE BULLETIN  年，卷(期)： 2005 50(2)  分類號： P4  關鍵詞： climatic change   war   social unrest   dynastic cycle   temperature anomaly  

【Climate change, social unrest and dy】相關文章：

Agricultural adaptation to climate change in China04-28

Vulnerability assessment of water resources to climate change in Chinese cities04-26

Climate change and permafrost stability in the eastern Canada Cordillera: The results of 33 years of measurements04-29

Variation of karst spring discharge in the recent five decades as an indicator of global climate change: A case study at04-29

Unrest：動蕩局面05-04

Complicated responses of stalagmite δ13C to climate change during the last glaciation from Hulu Cave, Nanjing, China04-27

英文求職信-Social Work - Social Work Assistant04-26

Change,the Need for Security04-28

Social Research On Renaissance Period04-26

Engineering for problem solving in future: Eco-social market economy and eco-social tech04-28