氣候變暖對中國不同地區農業的影響

Based on the China Rural Statistical Yearbook of 1984-2003 published by State Statistics Bureau,and the annual temperature in the same period,impacts of temperature change,agricultural input,and planting area on grin production were analyzed for different regions of China during the last 20 years.The results show that the main characteristic of climate warming has obviously promoted the increase of grain yield in Northeast China.but to some extent suppressed it in North China,Northwest China and Southwest China,and shown no obvious effect on it in East China and Central-South China.The increase in agricultural input facilitated the grain production obviously in various regions in the early stage of the past 20 years,but showed no obvious effect in the late stage.The continuous reduction in sown area had a significant negative effect on the grain production in East China and Central-South China.

作 者： 劉穎杰 林而達 Liu Yingjie Lin Erda   作者單位： 劉穎杰,Liu Yingjie(National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China;College of Resource Environment and Tourism,Capital Normal University,Beijing 100037,China;Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China)

林而達,Lin Erda(Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China) 

刊 名： 氣候變化研究進展  ISTIC 英文刊名： ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH  年，卷(期)： 2008 4(z1)  分類號： P4  關鍵詞： climate change   agricultural input   grain production  

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