對氣候變化背景下中歐易北河流域可用水的評估

The Elbe region is representative of humid to semi-humid landscapes in Central Europe,where water availability during the summer season is the limiting factor for plant growth and crop yields.especially in the loess areas with high crop productivity having annual precipitation lower than 500 mm.This paper summarizes the results of the first phase of the GLOWA(GLObal WAter)-Elbe project and tries to assess the reliability of water supply in the German part of the Elbe river basin for the next 50 years,a time scale relevant for the implementation of water and land use management plans.One focus of the study was developing scenarios which are consistent with climate and land use changes considering possible uncertainties.The concluding result of the study is that nature and communities in parts of Central Europe will have to deal with considerably lower water resources under scenario conditions.

作 者： Fred F.Hattermann Joachim Post Valeutina Krysanova Toblas Conradt Frank Wechsung   作者單位： Fred F.Hattermann,Valeutina Krysanova,Toblas Conradt,Frank Wechsung(Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research,Telegrafenberg A62,Potsdam D-14473,Germany)

Joachim Post(German Aerospace Center(DLR);German Remote Sonsing Data Center(DFD),Wessling D-82234,Germany) 

刊 名： 氣候變化研究進展  ISTIC 英文刊名： ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH  年，卷(期)： 2008 4(z1)  分類號： P4  關鍵詞： water resources   land use change   climate change   vegetation  

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