Scenario analysis of low carbon development in Tianjin, China

Abstract： Low-carbon economic development has become a fundamental approach to coordinating economic development and carbon emissions mitigation. As rapid developing economic, aviation and navigation, and financial center of North China, Tianjin's energy demand and CO, emissions are mushrooming, with per capita CO, emission from fossil fuel combustion exceeding 20 t in 2020, which much exceeds current level of USA. In the background of global responding to climate change, China will likely he requested to commit peaking its GHG emissions during 2020-2030, which will inevitably reduce the room of development in Tianjin enormously. Tianjin should make deployment ahead, realizing win-win of addressing climate change and sustainable development, with low-carbon economic development as important strategic mission, First of all, Tianjin should devote more efforts to reducing energy intensity and realizing relative emission reduction. Scenario analysis shows that Tianjin's future CO2 emissions Will continue to increase rapidly, but they can be significantly reduced by taking measures. Second, Tianjin should get ready for achieving absolute reduction of CO2 emissions as soon as possible, preparing system, technology and talent in advance, making great efforts to establish institutional mechanisms conducive to low-carbon development ,from now on, starting from energy conservation and emission reduction, actively carrying out low-carbon technology research and development, vigorously developing the tertiary industry with low emissions, developing new and renewable energy resources, actively promote low-carbon consumption. 作 者： ZHANG Fa-shu    SUN Zhen-qing    JIANG Dong-mei    YANG Zheng-jing    TIAN Dong-lang    SHI Hai-yan   作者單位： ZHANG Fa-shu,JIANG Dong-mei(Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, P. R. China;Institute of Low Carbon Economy. Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, P. R. China)

SUN Zhen-qing(School of Economy and Management, Tianjin University of Science and Technology. Tianjin 300222, P. R. China)

YANG Zheng-jing,TIAN Dong-lang,SHI Hai-yan(Tianjin Municipal Committee of Development and Reform, Tianjin 300040, P. R. China) 

期 刊： 生態經濟（英文版）    Journal： ECOLOGICAL ECONOMY  年，卷(期)： 2010, 6(1)  分類號： X3  Keywords： Scenario analysis    Low-carbon development    Carbon productivity    Tianjin   

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